Another Look at Jim Thome versus Travis Haffner...

[Alex]

I assume Jim Thome will reach 500 homeruns before his career is over. He probably won't reach 600.

So, pencil Thome in for 200-240 more homers over the next 6 years...for an average of between 33-40 homers a year.

IF Travis Hafner becomes our first baseman for this year, and future years, I can pretty much expect that in the next six years, Hafner will hit 150-200 homers.

Hafner will probably make around 20 million dollars over the next 6 years.

So, lets compare our numbers.

Thome will probably hit as many as 50-75 more homers than Haffner will hit over the next 6 years,...but those homers will cost 65 million dollars more, or approximately 1 million dollars per homer.

If you were Dolan, would you pay a million dollars for every extra homer?

I wouldn't.

It was not worth re-signing Thome for six years at 15 million a year. The selfishness that seeped from Thome was profound. Not only did Thome's contract "act" rob Tribe management from properly publicizing Omar's try at a tenth straight gold glove, (which had only been done TEN TIMES before, and everyone was a Hall of Famers!) Thome's yearly pay would have forced other salaries on our team to skyrocket as agents compared their client to Thome.

The bottom line is we stand a better chance of winning more games over the next six years WITHOUT Thome and his 15 million dollars a year salary.

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[Dr. Robert]

You've got a good point there. Plus, Hafner might even do better than that.

Hey, how about a picture of Travis in that upper left-hand corner?

Hafner was a [img]graemlins/present.gif[/img] from Hart. Lord knows we deserved it.

[Alex]

Maybe it's payback for not getting any compensation for Hart leaving for Texas when he was still supposed to be a "consultant" for the Indians.

I do think Colorado, Cleveland, and Texas are trying to help each other, the scary part is seeing how close in wins and losses all three teams were this past season. [img]rolleyes.gif[/img]

[Alex]

I was conservative on Haffner's numbers.

IF Haffner becomes our everyday first baseman, it's possible (I wouldn't bet on it, but it's possible) that six years from now, Haffner has either equaled or surpassed Thomes home-run totals over the past six years.

Wouldn't that be something!

[Dr. Robert]

No, I don't think Hafner was compensation. That was taking Rocker. Hart just hasn't learned his lesson on trading away great young hitters for veteran role-players. It'll be sweet justice if Hafner puts up Giles-like numbers for us.

<font color="#a62a2a" size="1">[ February 10, 2003 10:52 PM: Message edited by: Dr. Robert ]</font>

[Ytown Tribe fan]

You may have been conservative on Haffner's future numbers, but you may also have overestimated Thome's future numbers as well.

Thome could be just the guy to have back trouble or other injuries that shorten his seasons in two years, and shorten his career a couple of years after that.

This isn't sour grapes -- this is a real possibility. Thome's best comps all had injury-shortened careers.

The most similar batter to Thome, by far, was Ralph Kiner -- he was through at 32.

Albert Belle is next down the list of comparable batters -- through at 33.

Then comes Canseco -- basically through at 34, but someone forgot to tell him (or the White Sox).

Next on the list is McCovey, who had a good, long career.

Then comes Colavito -- through at 34; then Dick Allen -- same story.

Five of the six players most similar to Thome were through at 32-34. Maybe he'll be different.

[Alex]

Yeah, I'm purposely being ultraconservative because Travis Haffner has hit like 5 homers in the Majors (I don't know, I just know it's not too many), and Jim Thome has over 300.

But it is quite possible that Travis Haffner hits MORE homers than Jim does over the next 6 years.
Or Haffner could be the second Paul Sorrento. (Hey, he wasn't that bad, but you know what I mean)